Houston Rockets season preview: Opening schedule, win projection and everything to know for 2026-27

The 2026-27 NBA season is here! Check out our team previews, including power rankings, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy advice.

East:Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards

West:Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • LA Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz

Record: 52-30 (5th in the West, lost 4-2 in first round to Lakers)

Draft:Bruce Thornton (No. 31)

Signings:Bogdan Bogdanović (1 year, 3.9 million), Marcus Smart (2 years, $13 million), Tari Eason (re-signed for 5 years, $81.5 million), Amen Thompson (5 years, $208 million rookie-scale extension)

Key departures:Josh Okogie (signed with Jazz), Dorian Finney-Smith (traded to Hornets)

Current roster

What's exciting: Houston won 52 games with Fred VanVleet missing the entire season and Steven Adams appearing in only 32 games. Their presence alone should boost the Rockets up the standings. And that's even before accounting for the development of their young players, which has to be the most exciting thought for Rockets fans. Tari Eason is still only 25. Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson are still only 24. Jabari Smith Jr. and rookie Bruce Thornton are only 23. Reed Sheppard is only 22. This group is incredibly young, and already incredibly good. With the veterans back, if the kids get better, this team has amazing upside.

What's concerning: Last season, the Rockets shot only 36% in the last four seconds of the shot clock, per Synergy. On isolations, they ranked in the 45th percentile for scoring efficiency. Is that gonna be any better this year? Who closes games for Houston? Şengün still isn't a reliable perimeter option. Neither is Thompson. Is Ime Udoka going to resort to VanVleet chucking up 30-footers again? Will it be bully ball with Adams and Şengün crashing the boards? Or is it gonna have to be on Durant every single night? KD is 38. It can't be on him all the time, but there are no other clear answers on this team either. — Kevin O'Connor 

Preseason Power Rankings: How all 30 teams stack up ahead of 2026-27

Fred VanVleet looked like the Fred of old in Macao: 17 points, 7 assists, 2 steals and five 3s in 24 minutes, his first game since the September 2025 ACL tear. I'm not overreacting to one preseason game, but if this is the version Houston gets, his ADP is too low. — Dan Titus

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Opening week: 10/21 vs. Mavericks, 10/23 at Spurs, 10/24 at Hawks

Complete schedule

48.5 — win total

+700 to win division

+5000 to win NBA Finals

Best case: No. 3 seed

The Rockets have been an elite defense in every year of Udoka's tenure. For all my (valid!) concerns about the half-court offense, they were still a top-10 unit overall due to their transition attack. They were also unfathomably good on the offensive glass, and I would expect that to continue.

If the defense remains elite and VanVleet's presence is enough to take them from 19th in half-court offense to, say, 12th? They'll be looking at 50+ wins again.

Worst case: Play-In Tournament

If the half-court offense is still a problem — if opponents are even more empowered to be physical off-ball, switch a bunch, and shrink the floor off nonshooters — then the ceiling lowers. They'll still have the defensive infrastructure to churn out wins, but they may not do so at the level of some of their conference-mates. — Nekias Duncan

Read the full Southwest Division preview